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Casino Games - Deal or No Deal

Deal Or No Deal is an online version of the massively popular TV show. Pick a box then reveal the contents of the remaining ones. Will you hold your nerve or Take the offer when the mysterious Banker calls?

At face value, Deal or No Deal looks like a very simple game in which no strategy can be employed. The only thing that remains for the player to do is calculate whether the "deal" from the banker is fairly priced compared with the expected value of the box and whether you would be happy with that sum of money. If the deal is lower than the expected value of your box at that moment in the game, then you should choose "No Deal". If the offer is higher than the expected value of your box then you should "Deal".

As a general rule the first two banker offers will never be above the expected value of your box, and these will be the poorest offer you will be made. Regardless of what boxes you have knocked out, you should not usually deal in the first two rounds. After round two the banker's offers tend to be more in-line with the expected value of your box. The decisions in these later rounds gets more tricky, and what you decide will be factored by whether you are a risk-seeking or risk averse person. This was investigated in a recent study by Post et al (2006)

If you are a risk seeking person then you will be less inclined to make a "deal" and will tend to carry on regardless of the offer. If you are one of these people then you should try and step back and do the maths to make sure that the banker is not actually offering you a really good deal.

If you are a risk averse person, then you will be inclined to "deal" more when perhaps the banker is offering you a worse deal than expected value of your box. If you are one of these people then you should try and "hold your nerve" a little longer and wait for better deals.

Also there is the possibility that you knock out one of the big boxes in the first round. This will send you into a more risk seeking mode making you want to reject the maths and good dealer offers in order to try and get the maximum second best payout. This is similar to what poker players call "Tilt". If this happens you must try curb your enthusiasm to gamble when some, or all, the big boxes are gone. You should still assess the banker's offer on a round-by-round basis regardless of what has occurred before.

Whatever type of person you are, remember maths is key in this game. Fix a limit you would be prepared to deal at in each round and if the banker offers you more then "deal", if not "no deal". Good luck in beating the banker.

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